Under Review
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The Demand for Rebel Rules
Given the demands of warfighting, why do rebel groups expend limited resources to govern civilians? Early research focused on the structural characteristics and ideological motivations of rebel groups, while more recent studies highlight the role of civilians in conditioning rebel behavior. We argue that civilian discontent with state institutions creates demand for rebel alternatives. Using subnational survey data from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, we test whether perceived judicial corruption and mistrust in state courts predict JNIM's establishment of Sharia courts. We find that areas with higher civilian discontent in state courts are significantly more likely to experience rebel governance. Critically, civilian affinity does not independently predict rebel governance, suggesting that rebels do not simply establish courts where resistance is minimal but instead respond to specific institutional grievances. This paper contributes to the research on political order during conflict by providing the first systematic empirical evidence showing the importance of civilian demands in driving rebel behavior.
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Human Rights Consolidation or Fragmentation? A Network Analysis of Resolution Sponsorship in the UN Human Rights CouncilR&R at Network Science
This article examines the fragmentation within the international human rights regime by analyzing state sponsorship of resolutions proposed at the United Nations Human Rights Council. We analyze whether the expansion of the human rights regime has led to increased cohesion or fragmentation. Through network analysis, we find that fragmentation is issue-dependent, with topics like Israel-Palestine exhibiting higher levels of division, while others, such as physical integrity, show more consistent collaboration among states. These results challenge the assumption of a universally cohesive human rights framework and highlight the complexity of global norm dynamics. Our findings show the importance of understanding how specific issues influence state behavior and contribute to the broader discourse on the stability and coherence of the human rights regime and international governance.
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Civil Society and the Local Dynamics of Peacebuilding
How can local civil society organizations contribute to lasting peace? While scholars recognize CSOs' importance in peacebuilding, systematic evidence of their impact on dispute management remains limited. This study introduces novel peace indicators beyond violence reduction, focusing on communities' capacity to resolve local land disputes — a critical yet understudied dimension of peacebuilding. Using panel data from 222 rural communities in Colombia (2010-2016), I estimate the impact of participation in local CSOs on dispute management. Increased citizen participation in local CSOs significantly enhances land dispute management through patterns consistent with two mechanisms: information-bridging between communities and state institutions, and direct alternative dispute resolution platforms. Greater participation in key CSOs increases the likelihood of successful dispute resolution without violent escalation. These findings advance our understanding of civil society's contribution to conflict resolution by illuminating how local organizations enhance both formal institutional access and community-based alternatives, with relevance for understanding post-conflict governance.
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The Legacies of Civil Wars: Effects of Armed Conflict on Electoral Processes Over Time
How does prolonged exposure to violent armed groups shape electoral processes in democracies? Armed conflicts from the Philippines to Turkey create contexts where state authority is contested, yet the electoral consequences of sustained coexistence with armed actors over time remain understudied. We estimate how exposure to government forces, guerrillas, paramilitaries, and criminal groups during Colombia's civil war shapes voter turnout from 1988-2019. Leveraging administrative electoral data and a dynamic difference-in-differences design, we find armed group presence increases turnout progressively over fifteen years, with effects concentrated exclusively among political challengers. Voters systematically punish visible state representatives for persistent insecurity even when those officials lack direct authority over security forces, consistent with blind retrospective voting. These patterns persist despite substantial conflict-induced displacement and show no association with electoral fraud or incumbent dropout, indicating genuine voter punishment. Our findings reveal how citizens adapt available electoral institutions to express dissatisfaction within deeply compromised contexts — the strategic use of constrained channels to sanction leadership failures.
Policy Publications
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Discovery of Speech Crimes in Ukraine from Open Sources